Article summary : “Waist-to-Height Ratio Predicts Heart Risk at Age 10 Years”
Article summary :
“Waist-to-Height Ratio Predicts Heart Risk at Age 10 Years”
By: Becky McCall, MSc, MScPH
Published: May 13, 2025
Source: Medscape | Report from ECO 2025 (European Congress on Obesity, Málaga, Spain)
Key Summary Points
1. Main Finding:
• A gradual rise in waist-to-height ratio (central obesity marker) from birth to age 10 is linked to higher cardiometabolic and cardiovascular (CVD) risk at age 10.
2. Study Details:
• Data from the COPSAC2010 Danish cohort (736 mother-child pairs followed for 13 years).
• Children assessed 14 times from birth to age 10 for waist circumference and height.
• Cardiometabolic risk at age 10 included:
• HDL, triglycerides, glucose, BP (adjusted for height), and HOMA-IR.
• CVD risk evaluated via metabolomic biomarkers.
3. Identified Trajectories:
• Reference group (66%): Stable waist-to-height ratio.
• High-falling group (18%): Early rise, then decline to normal.
• Slow-rising group (15%): Gradual increase in central obesity over 10 years.
4. Risk Scores (Slow-Rising Group vs Reference):
• Cardiometabolic risk z-score: 0.79 (P < .0001).
• CVD risk score: 0.53 (P < .0001).
• Elevated markers:
• Blood pressure (P = .005)
• Triglycerides (P = .026)
• HOMA-IR (P < .0001)
• Low HDL (P < .001)
• Inflammation markers & ApoB also higher.
5. Practical Conclusions:
• Waist-to-height ratio at age 10 is as predictive of cardiometabolic risk as long-term trajectory.
• Central fat at a single point (e.g., age 10) is a strong predictor of current risk.
• Tracking waist-to-height ratio should be standard in pediatric care, not just BMI.
6. Expert Commentary (Dr. Andrew Agbaje):
• Waist-to-height ratio is:
• Cheap, ethnic-neutral, and reliable
• Better than BMI at predicting: fatty liver, type 2 diabetes, heart failure, and fractures
• Should be widely used for early detection and prevention.
